CONCEPT
We have developed a simulation tool to provide investors, analysts and entrepreneurs an insight into the potential financial impacts of natural capital pricing, such as greenhouse gas emissions, so they can assess potential risks and opportunities. However, this tool is intended to be just a “wake up call” and not an investment decision-making. Considering that all financial and emission data refer to the past, as a static photograph, but carbon pricing will be a dynamic future event, we suggest some questions for the Companies for deeper analysis:
– What percentage of the future cost can be passed on and minimize negative impacts?
– What are the emission reduction projects, what are their costs and effectiveness?
– Does the company already have compensations implanted or considered?
All these questions impact the final results of a company and their variables can be simulated in a simple and practical way.
The carbon pricing scenarios from the Paris Accord become even more likely and closer, learn more.
Next steps
After the release of the beta version (December 2016), a comparison of companies, sectors and simulation of indicators other than EBITDA will be included, as well as other potential sources of risks and opportunities besides GHG.
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KNOWLEDGE |
OUR FUTURE |
INVESTING PROPERLY |
MAKE DIFFERENT |
SIMULATOR
Evaluate the impact of carbon pricing (USD / ton of CO2e) over average EBITDA (of 2012, 2013 and 2014 in USD) of listed companies on the stock exchange market from several sectors and locations.
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TRY IT WITH YOUR COMPANY
Here you can simulate the impact of the carbon pricing on companies that are not in our database. It can be your company or any other that you have information of the indicators to be simulated.
IDEALIZADORES /
QUEM SOMOS?
HOW DO WE TEAM UP:
Based on the common interest in improving professional knowledge and qualification, the Invvessciente team met in the first group of the Professional Masters in Competitiveness Management with an emphasis on Sustainability at FGV (Fundaçao Getulio Vargas).
With the proposal to make a project of public utility and by affinity to the theme, the team was built. Initially, Carla Schuchmann identified a problem that is the difficulty of making investors aware of climate change. To address this problem, the group decided to create an instrument to demonstrate the impact of carbon pricing on companies and investments. From there on, the team began brainstorming ideas and matured the project through literature research and work meetings. Another key point in the constitution of this team was the coherence and affinity between the participants, facilitating teamwork.
Finally we present a Reference Project titled “Invesciente: Impact Simulator of Carbon Pricing in Valuation Indicators” and an idealizing team.
Arnolfo Menezes
Carla Schuchmann
Denys Roman
Dominic Schmal
Michel Peroni
Rodrigo Oliveira
Tatiana Regiani
DATA AND PREMISES
Legal Premises
In no case should this website, its tools, texts, statements and analyzes be understood as a tool for investment decision making. Its purpose is academic and data may contain inaccuracies by typing, incorrect or unaudited reports from primary and secondary sources.
General Assumptions
Data were collected from several sources such as CDP, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Public Reports of Open Capital Companies.
In the simulator database emissions and EBITDA were considered for 2012, 2013 and 2014, since several data from 2015 were not available. It should also be noted that no adjustments are considered in EBITDA
Assumptions for defining the sample
To define the sample data were collected more than 3000 Open Capital Companies participating indices such as S & P 500, IBOVESPA, ISE and others.
The data of the companies without frequent or correctly reporting of direct greenhouse gas emissions (Scope 1) were disregarded as well as sectors where EBITDA is not a performance measurement such as banks, insurance and others.
Next steps
As mentioned earlier, we intend to gradually include the comparison of companies, sectors and also expand to simulate other indicators besides EBITDA, as well as expanding the range of companies (including also companies not listed on the stock exchange And other potential sources of risks and opportunities other than GHGs.
Simulator FAQ
How to set the price of carbon?
To set the price of your Simulation Carbon, you can use the price adopted in certain countries or region (Table 1) or the price considered the ideal by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the UN) so that the temperature does not increase Above 2 ° C (Table 2).
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Location |
Base price in 2016 (USD) |
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Mexico |
1 |
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European Union |
Referring to Fig. |
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California, Quebec and New Zealand |
13 |
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United Kingdom, Denmark and France |
From 24 to 26 |
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Norway |
52 |
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Finland |
From 60 to 65 |
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Switzerland |
86 |
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Sweden |
131 |
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Ano |
Minimum carbon price to increase temperature below 2oC (USD) – IPCC |
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2020 |
80 |
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2030 |
90 |
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2040 |
140 |
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2050 |
220 |
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2100 |
1.500 |
What is Scope 1 and 2?
The companies that carry out GHG Inventories usually use the GHG Protocol methodology and record their direct and indirect emissions in the respective scopes.
In this methodology three levels of scope are defined:
Scope 1 (mandatory) – Considers direct GHG emissions from sources owned or controlled by the company or enterprise.
Scope 2 (mandatory) – indirect emissions from the acquisition of electric energy.
Scope 3 (optional) – considers the other indirect emissions resulting from the company’s activities, but in sources that are not under its control; Scope 3 includes emissions resulting from third-party operations, considering the entire value chain. Because it is optional and has no default in the included sources, we do not consider this scope in the simulator.
How to set this percentage?
Typically, in a fee-based government pricing system (applied in countries like Mexico, Japan, Portugal, France, Denmark and Switzerland), 100% of the emissions of the sectors covered by the system are taxed. On the other hand, in a market-based system, also called cap and trade (held in places such as the European Union, California, Beijing and Korea), the purchase is generally made only of emissions that exceed the limits stipulated for each company.
How do we define the available sectors?
We considered the most intensive sectors that made their information available.
How do we define the available companies?
Taking into account the definition of sectors, all publicly traded companies that have direct emissions (Scope 1) and EBITDA are publicly available.
What is the source of EBITDA used?
EBITDA in dollars was taken from Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Publicly-held Publicly-held Companies Reports.
What can simulation results mean?
The results show, with the caveats previously made, that from a given carbon price, the company’s EBITDA could suffer a great impact due to its direct and indirect carbon emissions. The impact is represented in% of the average EBITDA of the last 3 years (2012, 2013 and 2014) and the respective reported emissions of each year. To understand where prices similar to this are practiced, click here.
1 – ∑EBITDA – price( ∑CO2e scope 1 * % scope 1 + ∑CO2e scope 2 * % scope 2)
∑ EBITDA
How to understand the scenarios of carbon pricing in Brazil?
Brazil does not have a definition of when it will assign a price for carbon. Experts consulted indicate a start for 2020. You can consider the scenarios, for example, as moments (eg 2020, 2030 and 2050) with different carbon prices (probably increasing).
Endorsement
